 The New Reality of Ukrainian Politics By Volodymyr SENCHENKO |
As one reads the major Ukrainian newspapers, switches on the radio or boob tube, one can learn of some changes taking place in Ukrainian society and life. In the various media one reads, hears, and sees the details of political, inside-clan battles: who is against whom, who is with whom etc. One gets the impression that there is an active public political life in the country. The underlying pattern of this life belies current understandings and beliefs as to future presidential elections.
Presently it appears that all more or less important individuals in Ukrainian politics push each other, separate into groups or unite into groups, blocs for the sake of participation in the future elections: some of these people are candidates for the post of the President; others want to join in time a most likely winner. And the people of Ukraine live their own lives (mostly suffering) and don't know anything and don't really want to know "what the masters are doing in the world". At the same time the majority of the "fighters" for the interests of the people, the representatives of the power structures defend their own personal interests or the interests of their masters and their lucrative positions. This looks more like life in worlds that are parallel to each other: simple people have their own lives; the "servants of the people" have theirs.
But both have the same territory - Ukraine, and the system of power is the same. And once every several years their interests intersect (their interests don't get close to each other, but intersect). This happens at election time when the mass of people becomes the electorate.
It's true that the authorities and oligarchs need people as workforce, as taxpayers, as consumers, as the statistical mass of citizens - that is, people are needed like water, where oligarchs and the authorities can swim depending on their skills - some swim like a shark, some - like a killer-whale. Thus, these "servants of the people" can't do without the people, but despite this fact the people are not normally given any more attention than fish in water.
After all, why does one have to worry about the people? It's been proven that people will survive under any conditions. They will survive, like Lavrenty Beria once said, "on potatoes alone" (Lavrenty Beria - head of NKVD during Stalin times, - National Commissariat of Internal Affairs, later renamed the KGB). And when elections come, the mass media will be used, specialists for spin will be engaged and the latter will bring the masses to such necessary condition so that they will vote as one needs or requires, and if one wants to vote according to one's will, then one can do without them provided their names are on the lists of voters.
However, in my opinion, the "servants of the people" have some reasons to worry. Year by year the people as an electorate become more and more educated. First of all, people have come to the conclusion that they don't have any other instruments of influence on power except for voting during elections. Once, during Soviet times appealing to the Communist Party bodies and officials in Moscow was such an instrument. Even though it did not help all the time, it was known that the Party wasn't separated by clans with their selfish interests, and Moscow was in fact a rather independent arbiter (at least in small, non-political matters. According to the words of Vasyl Malyarenko, the current Head of the Supreme Court of Ukraine, even courts were more independent during that time than now). Now simple people don't have such instruments of influence on power, power holders or their masters, the oligarchs. Such a fact has caused the electorate to think. Secondly, in Ukraine one force appeared has caused a wide-scale program of educating the electorate.
This force is the opposition. There was opposition in the parliament before, which was represented by a Communist faction. But people did not trust this faction. That's because the Communists made fools of the people during the 70 years of Soviet rule! And now the Communists are appealing to the people to bring the country back to the previous system. And despite the fact that sausage was cheap in those times: 2 Soviet rubles 20 kopecks per 1 kg, and communal services cost almost nothing (the rates remained unchanged from 1927), the majority of the people don't want to return to the past. Also this very electorate has ascertained that it was the Communists that brought Leonid Kuchma two times to power.
The main feature of the present opposition is that it is not an opposition of chatterboxes (there are enough of these in Ukraine, like toads in a moor), but of personalities who have proved that they are capable of running the country. During their one and half years in office, the team of Prime Minister Viktor Yuschenko and Vice-Prime Minister Julia Tymoshenko managed to stop the economic downturn that had been going on for several years and to provide the highest GDP growth among post-Communist countries, to increase pensions to pay back or decrease salary arrears.
All this was done without outside borrowings and without the humiliation of Ukrainians' dignity before capricious foreign bankers. These politicians proved that it's possible to live well and develop and to have a decent present and a decent future. But they were not able to do more. They were removed from their positions. But people remembered and did not forget them despite three years of slandering of them. Stable high ratings of the leaders of the opposition are a proof of that. It's true that before the coming presidential elections (in 2004) there is still time to remove, i.e., strip the leaders of the opposition of their charisma and their aura as capable people. Though it's not easy to do. One can discredit Viktor Yuschenko only through exaggeration of some unattractive features of his character, e.g. facile, irresolute nature, married to an American etc. It's difficult to discredit Julia Tymoshenko. The fact that she's rich doesn't work any more because there are many people like her in the parliament In America a billionaire John Rockefeller consistently defends not only his personal interests, but also the interests of his state and its citizens. One instrument, however, is left - discreditable documents - meaning that she stole and took abroad one and a half billion cubic meters of natural gas, did not pay taxes et cetera. But is she the only one who has such "crimes"? Just look how many bureaucrats and oligarchs in Ukraine who cannot go abroad for fear that they will be arrested for laundering of "dirty money". But Julia Tymoshenko is able to travel freely and goes abroad frequently.
It's even more difficult to discredit the leader of the Socialists, Oleksandr Moroz. He has never been accused of corruption and nothing can be done about this. Already people have stopped believing his constant critic, "a fiery Socialist" Natalya Vitrenko and blackballed her at elections. People have had enough of her.
The Communists are the last hope of the authorities. However, 20% of electorate that votes for the Communists might not take their leader to another round face-to-face with a candidate supported by authorities, as has happened already twice. Prior to the next presidential elections the regular place of the Communists can be taken by someone from the opposition, a non-Communist, who might win over a pro-authorities candidate. Of course, for this not to happen, some reliable election techniques will be applied. But the main danger for authorities lies in the fact that the electorate will not prefer a candidate who only gives airy promises They will prefer the one who is capable, and such people are Viktor Yuschenko, Julia Tymoshenko, untarnished committed Oleksandr Moroz. Thus, discrediting the leaders of the opposition, stripping of them of their charisma as capable managers is already a difficult task because they have proved that the Ukrainian economy can operate efficiently provided there is professional and honest management.
During the last two years the example of effective management of the Ukrainian economy found its continuation, much to the authorities' despair.
The new government of Anatoliy Kinakh, which replaced Viktor Yuschenko's team, failed to sustain the pace of economic development of the country. The pace of growth was steadily decreasing. At the same time one of the previous almost devastated sectors of the Ukrainian economy, namely railroad transportation, got a sharp boost. During the first year under the new head of "Ukrzaliznytsya" (Ukrainian railroad) Heorhiy Kyrpa, this sector of the economy paid back the debts (about one billion) to the state budget and made profits. An accelerated movement towards amazing successes began. Annually "Ukrzaliznytsya" pays to the state budget up to two billion hryvnya in taxes from two to two and a half billion hryvnya are allocated to reconstruction and purchase of new equipment. "Ukrzaliznytsya" reconstructed and built tens of train stations (including the one in Kyiv). The company constantly increases salaries and managed to preserve the social security system of the sector. With what money? - Heorhiy Kyrpa is asked. He says that he used stolen money, he took them away from criminals. And this is true. And people understand this. He cut the legal and semi-legal channels of embezzlement within the railroad sector.
The profitability of the railroad system is growing, and the building of Ukrainian locomotives, passenger cars, diesel locomotives has started. All this drew the attention of the Ukrainian public and it's logical that the President awarded the title of the Hero of Ukraine to Heorhiy Kyrpa and appointed him as the Minister of Transportation.
It seems that in his new role Heorhiy Kyrpa will ensure a breakthrough in the economy. For the first time, once loss-making ports (there are 18 big ports in Ukraine) have started to make profits. The creation of Ukraine's own sea trade fleet started - once it was one of the strongest in the world and as of now it's completely bankrupt through embezzlement and other theft. If Heorhiy Kyrpa succeeds with his program for revival of the transportation sector of Ukraine, then he will be considered a really capable person just as Viktor Yuschenko and Julia Tymoshenko. In Ukraine people will become reassured that it's possible to overcome poverty. People will get reassured that the core reasons for Ukrainian crisis lie in the clan-oligarch system of power. Thus, no matter what political forces Heorhiy Kyrpa supports, as well as other managers similar to him, the actions of such people will support the opposition headed by Viktor Yuschenko, Julia Tymoshenko, and Oleksandr Moroz. Such managers are eloquent evidence, a valid proof of the program statements of the opposition. Such managers are evidence of the possibility of breakthrough development for Ukraine, provided there are honest state managers in power.
Currently a cohort of such leaders-patriots with managerial talents is forming gradually in Ukraine. The Ukrainian people will try to give the power - both parliamentarian and presidential - right to these patriots.
Moreover, not so many energetic and talented managers are needed for Ukraine to become prosperous.
Before the Bolshevik coup in October 1917, Volodymyr Lenin said that he would need 30,000 people devoted to revolution in order to succeed. And he did it. Ronald Reagan also said that he would need 5,000 devoted and capable administrators to realize his program. And he did it.
I don't know how many thousands of honest, outside-of-clans state managers are needed for Ukraine today, but I am sure - not many. And there are already such people. If the Ukrainian people support and elect them, then very soon Ukraine will occupy a leading position among the developed countries in modern civilization.
Current power will not be able to provide such personalities so as to oppose the opposition. This is because the authorities don't have such leaders. The authorities have people who are outstanding masters of "secret games", who are skilled in illegal and semi-legal combinations of embezzlement of state property and in inside-the-clan re-distribution of it. And no image-makers will be able to correct this situation.
There is only thing that can be an obstacle to the victory of the opposition: if the leaders of the clans, the oligarchs manage to separate the leaders of the opposition, to oppose them one against another. This could be done by giving promises of attractive positions in the government. The sad historical experience of Ukraine shows that it's quite possible to do this in a country where every person wants to be a hetman. Such things have already happened in the past. Let's hope that history won't repeat itself this time.
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Read also previous issue' articles:
The Herodotus of Ukrainian History
Ukrainians Want A Country That Respects Them
Ukraine's Brain Drain
Chauvinistic Smoke A Few Words on Russia
A walk on the underside
Re-inventing Production: Military Giants Discover Consumer Goods
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