 Current Demographics of Ukraine By Pylyp SELIHEY |
If you want to determine exactly the state of any country, then you won't find a better instrument than demography. The well-being of a population and a country's future are realistically portrayed through the main demographic processes: such items as birthrate, mortality rate, migrations information and other statistical data.
Depopulation, that is, a decrease in the number of a population, is the main current demographic process in Ukraine. This is a rather new process for us, since we became accustomed to the fact that since the end of WWII the number of the population had been increasing year by year. During this period of time the absolute number of the population reached its peak in 1993 and constituted 52.2 million people. The annual growth was approximately 280 thousand people. But from the next year the slow, but steady decrease started. In general, during the last eight years the population of Ukraine decreased by a total of approximately 3.5 million people. According to the all-Ukrainian population census of 2001 Ukraine's population isn't 52 million, but 48.5 million. Thus, our country is no longer on the list of European countries with a population of over 50 million residents. And it seems Ukraine will be off this list for a long time.
The main reason for depopulation is a sharp decrease in birthrate. Presently Ukraine's birthrate has dropped below the level that is necessary for simple reproduction of its population. In order to sustain a normal change of generations, 100 women have to deliver about 215 children. This number is now 110 children in Ukraine. And taking into account the decrease of the population during the last few years, Ukraine will be able to avoid demographic aging only then when each Ukrainian woman delivers 3-4 healthy kids a generation. But is this realistic?
The Ukrainian family has switched to a one-child model of family that doesn't allow reproduction of the population at a proper level. Plus take into the account the increase in the number of incomplete families and the increase of extramarital fertility, the scale of which is unprecedented now. A rather large number of young people prefer to get married and have children later when better times come.
It is true that statistics tell us that lately the number of newborn babies has increased in Kyiv.
Obviously, certain improvement of material well-being is having some effect. But Kyiv is not the whole of Ukraine. It is not the poorer people that live in the capital; there are more opportunities in Kyiv to earn money, the unemployment level is lower, which cannot be said, unfortunately, about the provinces.
A high level of artificial interruption of pregnancy is caused by unwillingness to have children (due to material problems). For example, in 1998 525 thousand abortions were registered. This is much more than the number of newborns - approximately by one and half times. It's true, however, that the number of abortions fluctuates depending on a particular region. More abortions are registered in the South of Ukraine; there are fewer abortions in the Western oblasts of Ukraine. In a recent period there were 200 abortions per 100 newborns registered in Luhansk Oblast (East), and in Ternopil Oblast (West) this figure was 47.5. Also, a high child mortality rate negatively affects the demographic situation in the country.
The birthrate level is decreasing, and as a result the share of individuals of older age groups is increasing. Already today there are 12 million people of non-working age in Ukraine, actually - a quarter of the nation. The process of overall aging, however, shows also a positive tendency - an increase in life expectancy. But this comforts very little since old people require proper social security (pensions, benefits, free medical service etc.) And since at the same time the number of taxpayers is not increasing (because the birthrate level is decreasing), then an additional burden falls on the state budget.
Thus, the current demographic situation in Ukraine is characterized by the lengthy process of decrease in the birthrate level, by a decrease in the number of children and teenagers, by an increase in the share of pensioners. The death rate exceeds the birthrate. Thus there are enough reasons to account for the acute demographic crisis in the country.
And at the same time depopulation in Ukraine can't be considered separately from the overall world tendencies. A decrease in birthrate is evidenced in almost all the developed countries of Europe and North America. At the same time a real baby boom is happening in the underdeveloped countries of Africa and Asia, where the number of the population is growing sharply. Due to this baby boom we are today observing the beginning of the global process of "migration of peoples": economically developed Western countries compensate for the lack of working people with migrants from the African-Asian region who fill up vacant workplaces.
Taking into account this world tendency, recently specialists of the Council on Studying of Productive Forces (of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine) have made public a forecast for demographic development of Ukraine for the next 75 years. Since the above mentioned groups of migrants consist, primarily, of young people, then their influx will not only satisfy the demands of the Ukrainian economy in workforce, but will also increase the birthrate level and decrease the death rate. According to this forecast, the general number of population in Ukraine will reach its minimal level approximately in the year 2025 (it will constitute about 43 million people at that time). Within the next 50 years it will increase gradually due to the influx of migrants, and at the beginning of 2075 will reach 51.5 million people.
Thus, Ukraine has to make a choice - either to preserve the indigenous nationalities under their stable decrease or to live together with European and African-Asian peoples on the territory of Ukraine.
Of course, migrants will be able to fill up the vacant workplaces in the Ukrainian economy. But large-scale influx of other nations - persons with completely different religious and ethic views, completely different cultures - can cause a risk of creation of dangerous tension in relations between nationalities. One is talking about the same problem that, for example, France or Germany experiences now.
I don't comfort myself at all with the hope that Ukraine will manage to evade this world process. Actually it has already begun in our territory. Already today a substantial increase in the number of Armenians and Azerbaijanians is registered in Ukraine. More and more often one can see persons with dark colored skin on the streets in Kyiv. Often they are with Ukrainian women.
And anyway it seems to me that we haven't yet run out of internal resources. Ukraine needs a clear and goal-oriented demographic policy. The government and the President issue some sorts of decrees, resolutions, instructions, but it looks like that their effect is approaching a zero level of efficiency. Instead, a well-thought out social policy is needed, one that will stimulate birthrate and contribute to a strengthening of the family. If the state allocates, let's say, around 200 hryvnia a month to each woman for bringing up a child, then the birthrate would undoubtedly increase.
Of course, this modest money contribution will not be enough for everything. But even this sum would encourage at least some Ukrainian families to have and bring up several children. Not spending on the future of the nation is simply a sin.
Editor's Note
Opinions expressed in this article as to the homogeneity and cultural make up of the population of Ukraine are those of the author and should not be taken as representative of the views of the UO.
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