 The Tides of History 2003 By Volodymyr SENCHENKO |
Political Events in the USA, Russia and Ukraine
The year 2003 is over. It's only natural then that the peoples of the world's different communities and states look back at recent past events. This is necessary in an effort to obtain a sense of the currents or tides of history in the hope of discerning what the future may portend.
For some people and their countries the past year was one of success, and therefore the future appears bright. Some others encountered only failures and tragedies in the past year. And some people, being so busy with solving everyday problems, may not have noticed how the year of 2003 approached its finish. However, in spite of certain periods of failures in the last year there are hopes that matters will be better in the new year of 2004.
During the first few weeks of the new year, in various countries the politicians, scientists and public figures will be talking about possible future events and forecasts for the year 2004. But people will still remember the year 2003 for history will record two major events of that year.
The first such event is that the USA openly demonstrated its leadership and power to the whole world. The second, and as yet under appreciated event, records the renewal of historical ambitions in Russia.
The USA became such a leading and powerful country not just last year. America was approaching such a status for many decades. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the USA remained the only superpower in the world. Still a decade or more the country was "hiding" itself behind different organizations, in particular, the United Nations. Without getting a sanction from United Nations Security Council, the USA did in 2003 what they considered had to be done for the sake of their own national interests - the country overthrew the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq. No one can as yet know how long the USA will be able to remain as the lone, sole superpower in the world. Probably for a long time. The world must wait for the time when some other powerful country or countries emerge or arrives on the world's political stage. Such countries-contenders would need, first of all, to gain as much economic potential as the USA, but to do so will not be an easy or a fast process.
The second, as yet under appreciated event as foretold above, and which is yet not so important for the world community, was first defined by the announcement of Anatoliy Chubais, the head of Unified Energy Systems of Russia. Anatoliy Chubais announced the policy of building Russia as a liberal empire. By this he and those he represents mean basically the restoration of Russia and its power under new slogans. As of today, this announcement about the new (old) direction of Russian policy still remains practically unnoticed in the world community. But this is so only for now. Back in history, when the Russian army had defeated the Swedish army in 1709 near the city of Poltava, Russia proclaimed itself an empire. And few countries in the world paid attention to this at that time. However, from that moment and for almost two centuries thereafter Russia was one of the most powerful nations in the world.
Today only one country feels the influence of this new (yet not official) direction of Russian policy - and that is Ukraine. It is only recently that Ukraine became separate from the old Russian Empire - U.S.S.R. Ukraine is yet a young country; it still as yet doesn't have its own history of statehood, and its economy is still developing, and the country doesn't have its own nuclear arsenal. Russia (together with the USA) became a guarantor of the inviolability of Ukraine's frontiers in exchange for Ukraine's giving up of its nuclear arms. In spite of these obligations, Russia has already begun a trial round of realization of its ambitions as, again, an empire state. That is, the Big Brother has decided to take advantage of the immaturity of its "younger sister" - Ukraine. Ukraine is vulnerable. Russia's first step seems small. And the whole dispute is about a minute island with the name Tuzla, which is in the Kerchenskiy Strait. The area of the island is only 35 square kilometers. Compared to the whole territory of Russia, this island is just small "dust".
But from the point of view of the current political situation, with presidential elections coming up in Russia soon, the country's claim to Ukraine is a rather noticeable act. The Russian electorate will begin feeling themselves again as "Great Russians", citizens of "Great Russia", even though their country as yet is not so powerful as the USA. But at least it would more clearly be the most powerful one in Eurasia. The first step of imperial thinking and the re-creation of Greater Russia have been made. As of now, it's not known what the results of this step will be for Russia and other countries.
The two events in the year of 2003 as described have become a part of history. They each it is thought will be remembered for a long time. The repercussions of these two events may reverberate much further into history and may have much more importance than now can be forecast.
As for Ukraine, the last year was the continuation of development of a market economy in the country. Last year will probably be remembered as a crucial year. The year when the Ukrainian people finally understood that Ukraine's oligarchs are unable to run the country for the sake of their citizens' interests and for the sake of Ukraine itself. Previous years have provided the evidence that corrupt officials and oligarchs view the Ukrainian state only as a tool for getting their own benefit. In the year 2003 people finally became convinced that the ruling elite had failed, that the elite have failed to understand that the state is a joint, public institution, and not a private one.
In essence, the Ukrainian ruling elite have privatized "the state". Recently I found some cases when certain functions of the state - for example, the issuance of state acts for land, which is now being privatized by citizens, - had been officially passed to private companies. Of course, those companies receive payment for their services both from citizens and the state, which in its turn obtains international assistance for conducting land reform (one is talking about one benefit loan in the amount of 84.4 million USD).
However, it was the panic around prices for grain in the year 2003 that produced the most convincing proof of the complete irresponsibility and inaptitude of Ukraine's ruling elite. Yes, the real reason that caused the hyper-demand for grain and bread products was the poor harvest of the year 2003. In 2002 38.8 million tons of grain had been collected, but in the year 2003 only about 20 million tons were collected. Under such conditions prices should have risen by some degree, but should not have skyrocketed by two to four times. And the real reason is just simple. The state didn't have sufficient reserves. Smart people would not have let such a thing to happen. Thus, in the summer of 2003 the people's trust in the ruling elite disappeared completely (along with the state grain reserves).
Here the root of the crisis of trust in the ruling elite stems. And now the situation in society is such that the people understand that it can't go on like this. Confidence in government and even the basic fabric of society are gone or severely undermined. History shows that under such conditions a society might entrust itself into the power of destructive forces of society. It might happen not because the society likes or respects those forces, but because in such a way the society could react to the contrariness of the current "rulers". In the past there have been many examples of such behavior by masses of people .
I remember the horrible year of 1941, the first year of the Great Patriotic War, the year of the dreadful military failures of the Red Army. One of the reasons for those failures was that many soldiers' protested against Joseph Stalin's regime, against past famines, purges and other ills that had been bestowed on the people. Sometimes Nazi soldiers were welcomed by some Soviet people with bread and salt hoping that under the Nazis changes for the better would happen. I recall the most common response of my native village people when they returned from Nazi captivity. (Nazi soldiers let peaceful residents go home from captivity because they had to harvest crops in 1941). When asked why they surrendered to Nazis in general, the people said: "But for whom did I have to fight? For Red Army officers?"
By the way, it was Russian society's protest against previous Communist regime that brought Boris Yeltsin to power in Russia, and Ukrainian society's fear of Communists' return to power that allowed Leonid Kuchma to become the President of Ukraine for a second term. And now the situation is such that "the society's protest syndrome" could occur in Ukraine. While pro-power forces and centrist opposition are fighting with each other, a third player could appear on the Ukrainian political arena and might achieve success. In such case, such a period in Ukrainian history might be remembered by Ukrainian society for a long time as a period when again the society failed to learn a single lesson.
The Western world does not give enough attention to such events in Ukraine. In this they fail to see that such events are crucial in this part of the world and that the situation could lead to undesirable consequences. These consequences could have substantial influence in Europe. One must remind, again and again, that the whole matter is not just about the fact that Ukraine is an important part of Europe, but also the fact that Ukraine's unique location and potential could lead the economic development in this region in undesirable directions.
However, recent events indicate that Europe may have begun to understand the economic and geopolitical significance of Ukraine and is now beginning to look closer at the internal political processes in Ukraine. So, it's quite possible that in the new year of 2004 the European community will have a clearer, more positive concept of cooperation with Ukraine. Such concepts should be implemented into reality for the sake of both Ukraine and Europe.
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Read also previous issue' articles:
The Herodotus of Ukrainian History
Ukrainians Want A Country That Respects Them
Ukraine's Brain Drain
Chauvinistic Smoke A Few Words on Russia
A walk on the underside
Re-inventing Production: Military Giants Discover Consumer Goods
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