Doing business in Ukraine is a little like one of those reality shows on television. There are few winners, and the chances of embarrassment are many.
But that is the way it is with all risky markets. First loves always break your heart. The trick is to cushion the blow and move on.
After nearly 10 years of guiding businesses in Eastern Europe, I am often asked my opinion about the future of Ukraine, and if it represents a good investment.
This is sort of like being asked to be marriage counsel to Britney Spears after she's had a night out on the town in Las Vegas. Chances are she-- and you--won't listen.
After all, you say, the country has nearly 50 million consumers, which would seem to guarantee a demand for my better mousetrap, my tastier soda pop and my gee-whiz electronic gadget.
But four years ago, both in my book Dancing With the Bear: Crisis Management in Eastern Europe and in a column called "Coyote Ugly and Other Horrors", I outlined my five principles for success.
Thus far, they have kept me, and my businesses, out of serious trouble, which is not to say they represent a guarantee for the future.
1. Avoid coyote ugly. You know, when you wake up in the morning after a wild night, and you would rather gnaw off your arm than disturb the person next to you.
This is rather trite terminology, but it fits. Jumping in bed with the wrong local business partner is the No. 1 miscalculation. It is so important because it is so costly. Often, it kills the business; or, at least, your involvement in that business.
Due diligence is a must. Never make decisions on local partners long distance. Never rely solely on a word of mouth recommendation. Never take credentials for granted, they are often inflated.
2. Don't be a nattering nabob of negativism, to quote a line William Safire wrote for a failed vice president. Be practical, but be positive. The alternative simply is not productive.
We advise clients to take a positive but realistic attitude. Constantly haranguing the government -- even if it deserves it -- is to join the doomsday chorus.
A positive approach will open many more doors, whether with local business opportunities or with the government. This is one of those syrupy bromides, but it works.
3. Watch out for bar stool philosophers. Opinions are like, well, bald spots, most of us eventually have one.
When the economic crisis of 1998 hit, it seemed everyone at the local waterhole had an opinion on the ruble and the hryvnia. Most overstated the case, being alarmist draws a larger crowd.
Beyond this, however, are the grizzly cowboys who operate just a shade outside the law, both of their own country and that of the host country. Listen to them. It's entertaining. Don't take their advice.
4. Practice the "Theory of Diminished Expectations". This won't win you any points with the folks in the boardroom back home, but it will keep you from becoming a basket case.
Too often companies expect from governments and people in Eastern Europe what they couldn't hope to accomplish in their own countries. They rationalize this by saying the risks are greater.
Patience is universally a virtue, but in Eastern Europe, wear it like a favorite old sweater. Get used to it.
5. Avoid attempting to fly under the radar, even though your attorney and your accountant advised you to do so.
You can't and won't go unnoticed. If you employ people and sell a product, you're on everyone's scope from the local gangsters to government officials, which might be one and the same.
Don't be ostentatious, but do be strategic in your awareness program. Good corporation citizenship creates a reservoir of good will. Strategic outreach programs with government officials as well as media opportunities can help avoid pitfalls later.
In summary, there is no holy writ. Surviving and thriving in Eastern Europe is a lot like a day at the auto races. If you can get around the track in one piece, winning will take care of itself.
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