Yes, the UO's cartoon cover parodies the famous "midnight ride" of America's Paul Revere on April 18, 1775 to Lexington Green, presaging the battles of Lexington and Concord, the beginning of America's revolution. [Aside: Revere it has been noted would not actually have exclaimed, "the British are coming" as the colonists were British. Neither is the phrase used in Longfellow's immortal and stirring poem]. Nevertheless, there is real concern it seems among many about the relationship between Russia and Ukraine. The "many" refers not only to many Ukrainians, but also to the European Union and its member nations, the Americans, some in the UN and others.
It has been noted, in some cases with a high degree of alarm, that the nexus between Russia and Ukraine is growing. Many Russian companies have invested in Ukraine and the amount of this investment is increasing - some would say at an alarming rate. Whole industries have been absorbed and are dominated by Russian domiciled-entities or their affiliates in Ukraine. The banking industry, the energy sector, certain metallurgical areas and even agriculture seem a part of this trend.
Politically, the Russian Federation and Ukraine are bound together by the Commonwealth of Independent States, and apparently, perhaps, by the Unified Economic Space in addition to other treaties and agreements. Russia and Ukraine are major trading partners.
For decades, Ukraine was a Soviet republic. Though it t was "independent" enough for Stalin to obtain a separate seat for it in the United Nations, it was dominated by the larger Russian republic within the USSR and managed and controlled internally from Moscow. For centuries, left-bank Ukraine was Russian territory.
There is no doubt that many Russians consider Ukraine as Russia, and Ukrainians their brothers, though perhaps little brothers. Some believe that the higher levels of Russian officialdom are making plans, though yet unannounced, for Ukraine and neighboring Belarus (another little brother) to again be absorbed into Russia. There is some evidence of this, dispositive to some, persuasive to others.
Presently there exist only a few minor problems that might produce conflict between Russia and Ukraine and which could lead to Russia acting on any plan to consolidate the nations. These include past and present pipeline and energy controversies, and the tussle over Tuzla Island and the Kerch Strait "bridge." Even Crimea (the republic) itself could trigger an intense confrontation.
Perhaps there are major problems as well: Russia's leadership, particularly its military, cannot be easily reconciled to Ukraine's dalliance with NATO. And it cannot displease those same officials that Ukraine's leadership seems destructively bent on preventing the EU from seriously considering membership for Ukraine. On the other hand, recent events in Moscow may cause Europe and the U.S. to think that it may be time to warm towards Ukraine for security reasons. So, Ukraine, the "buffer state" rises again in the high-level thinking of the West.
And what of Russia? As President Vladimir Putin heads toward certain re-election, he is seen still busy managing his "managed democracy," as he is wont to consider his stewardship of that fairly large electorate. During late February, Putin dismissed Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov and the rest of Russia's government. A banner year seems ahead for the president: Some of the country's so-called oligarchs are either in jail, in exile or in retreat and mostly quiet. The TV and media seem supportive for their own presumed quite sound reasons. A recent showdown with a belligerent Belarusian leader didn't cause too much anxiety for Putin. Things seem well in hand, as Russia itself looks westward - and eastward as well, for potential new oil deals and matters military. The look westward is old, as is the look eastward. Russian leaders from even before, but clearly by the time of Peter the Great, saw the need for expansion; the need to project borders outward to provide security inland. Russia has always had pressure east and south from Asian, Persian and Turkic peoples.
Consider Ukraine: The 2004 election is beginning to get serious; and parliament is mulling constitutional changes that raise a fog when one contemplates the potential results. But, at least it seems there are no oligarchs in jail or who are in need of such treatment from the current administration. And leader Leonid Kuchma seems on good terms with leader Putin. So much good news, one supposes.
And the peoples: They really are brothers in the flesh, most all claiming descent from an ancient and common Kyvian Rus. They are all brother Slavs. According to a reference only a few years old
(The Ukrainians: Unexpected Nation, Andrew Wilson, Yale University Press, 2000), the people of the nation Ukraine are by percentage Ukrainian only (56%), Russian only (11%) or both (27%).
It is said that much of left-bank Ukraine, unlike the earlier independence vote of years past, might not be so solidly "national," if that is the right word, now. And some say that Russia is not Russia without Kyiv. There are the old and pensioned, and some former and still communists who wouldn't be particularly concerned if Ukraine rejoined Russia. And there is always Crimean, the republic.
What sound that? What do we hear? The voice of a silly cartoon character... faintly, perhaps?
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