Is Ukraine a geographic crossroads offering huge political and commercial potential, or merely a buffer between competing nations, religions and ideologies, subject to the pushing and pulling of external influences?
In the former Soviet Union, students were required to thoroughly study the geography of the USSR. Pupils were required to be able to memorize a string of facts about the country: its size, the length of its borders, the neighboring countries, its economic-geographic regions, and nearby seas and oceans. But they were required to learn almost nothing about Ukraine, its past or even its geopolitical place in the modern world. The USSR was marked only in one color on maps throughout the world. The borders of Ukraine were indistinctly demarcated as a mere administrative border, and within Ukraine, there were no notations at all.
When former U.S. President George H.W. Bush recommended that Ukraine not secede from the Soviet Union, his call didn't generate many emotions in Ukraine. How could a foreigner be expected to know or care about Ukrainians' interests when Ukrainians themselves didn't know much about their nation?
Ukrainians only really started to understand their country after it became independent. Only then, for what appeared to be the first time, did Ukrainians appear to grasp their geopolitical connection with Europe and Asia. Independence fostered an interest in the country's distant history. Interest in its pre-history and historic past grew substantially.
Hundreds of years ago, the peoples who populated what today is Ukraine understood the area's location at the intersection of Europe and Asia. It lay between the north and south, and between the forests and steppes. In fact, the Ukrainian steppes became a natural border marking the trade route that nomadic peoples traveled.
The few nomadic tribes that stopped and took up farming on these lands became the first Southern-Eastern Slavic people. These peoples - who called themselves rusychy - may well have saved Europe by repelling the last invasion of Tatar Mongols.
Almost a millenium later, the relevance of Ukraine's geographic location has surfaced again. Ukraine appears at the convergence of two worlds: the highly developed Euro-Atlantic community and the huge Asian continent, which relies on its human and natural resources to fuel development. Ukraine is also feeling competitive pressure from Russia to the north and the Middle East and North Africa to the south.
Ukraine's geographic position also puts it at the intersection of the world's major religions: Christianity, Islam and Eastern religions.
The country's geographic location has long complicated efforts by policymakers to define a long-term development strategy, leading former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Carlos Pascual observe that Ukraine is still "not sure about its own goals."
The government needed time to precisely define its priorities. Its location at a geographic crossroads means that a lot of goods are transported through its territory - more, in fact, than anywhere else in Europe. Goods from more than 30 countries pass through Ukraine. Oil and gas pipelines transit the country from Russia to Europe. Meanwhile the Central Asian countries and Kazakhstan become more involved, too, and over time, Iran may join the process.
The shortest railroad route from Europe to Asia runs through Ukraine as well. That the rail line is economically expedient is proven, and the value of potential volume of cargo transportation reaches about $600 billion. The route from north to south, though smaller by volume, is still significant and also runs through Ukraine.
It is no less significant to develop air routes between Europe and Asia that transit Ukrainian airspace, as was evident during the anti-terrorism campaign in Afghanistan. Ukraine probably has one of the best-developed radar tracking and air traffic systems in Europe.
Ukrainian specialists who have analyzed the country's transportation potential and international transportation needs have prompted the introduction of improved legislation, accelerated road construction and encouraged the inauguration of new marine ferry routes. This is not work still in the planning stage - it has been implemented. Now, trains from Europe can cross the Black Sea by ferry en route to Azerbaijan or Turkey.
The nation's communications systems await further development.
The outdated analog telephone communication system that Ukraine inherited has undergone a massive upgrade. Once, all international telephone calls had to be routed through Moscow. Today, modern fiber-optic digital lines and switches make international direct dialing possible. The nation is creating a communications system using modern equipment and is quickly reaching European service levels.
Understanding just the single factor of Ukraine's location as a transit hub conditions Ukrainian foreign policy: its goal is for the country to develop in all possible directions, to establish equal and mutually beneficial relations with all nations, wherever situated.
For all its progress, there remain serious economic circumstances; in particular, the fragmentation of the Ukrainian economy. The Russian Empire and, later, the Soviet Union, benefited from a division of labor. To ignore this fact of life is to ruin the economy, rendering the population hungry and poor. Breaking these centuries-old economic ties and ceasing military production has slashed domestic production by half or more and deprived millions of Ukrainians of jobs. It is one reason why about seven million Ukrainians presently work abroad.
Thus, regardless of the desires of any domestic political force, the country has to conduct sound policy regarding all countries.
The system of division of labor inherited from the Soviet Union still exists in Ukraine and other post-Soviet countries. These countries rely upon Ukraine, and, in turn, Ukraine needs these countries. On the other hand, Ukraine needs to cooperate with Europe and the United States. Ukraine is rebuilding its economy, and a close relationship with the highly industrialized West is needed.
Optimally, Ukraine should strive to work with the countries of the European Asian customs union and the EU as an equal partner.
Though the Cold War is over, a rivalry continues between the European Atlantic countries and Russia's imperial ambitions. This is evident every time that Ukraine moves toward the EU, causing Russia to urgently express its negative reaction. Russia's sentiments are shared by powerful political forces inside Ukraine which see a union of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine as the country's best hope.
Conversely, when Ukraine leans eastward, the European Atlantic countries immediately lodge negative reactions. They argue that cozier relations with Moscow will damage Ukraine's EU aspirations, and preclude the nation from ever becoming part of a united Europe.
As the east and west have their own goals to pursue, it seems to each that Ukraine's behavior is inconsistent. As Zbignew Bzhezinskiy once noted, Ukraine seems to be "an unreliable partner."
Because Ukraine is a bridge or buffer between differing interests, it is unavoidable that disputes will occasionally arise. Besides, Ukraine is a great European country with desirable technology, fertile land, and an educated population. Though Ukraine is not presently an independent player in world (or European) politics, it can be a pivot player, tipping the balance between the major players in global politics. Ukraine can tip that balance using its military potential as well as with its geographic advantage, its scientific achievements and its food production potential.
Though Ukraine may be tempted to stand between east and west without taking sides, such is impossible. Both the west and the east have great influence on the Ukrainian economy: the west uses capital and the east uses its energy resources. Besides, their attitudes toward Ukraine reflect the conditions of those seven million Ukrainians who are working abroad. Cool relations with Russia could mean having the supply of energy resources interrupted, and pressure brought to bear on Ukrainian workers in Russia. Cool relations with the west would mean additional economic obstacles, and the deliberate humiliation of Ukrainians working in central and western Europe, and particularly in the Czech Republic.
Ideally, Ukraine should develop close relations with the EU and the United States on one hand, and with Russia and Asia on the other. Under such circumstances, Ukraine wouldn't need to maneuver between the powerful forces. It would perform a role as a bridge between west and east, and profit from allowing goods to transit its territory.
Ukraine needs to distance itself from controversy involving the world powers, since doing otherwise would reflect negatively on Ukraine. Taking sides would cause Ukrainians to distance themselves from global politics and rely on domestic forces to preserve Ukraine's independence.
Sociological surveys show that very clearly. After NATO's bombing of the former Yugoslavia, the people's respect for the U.S. and NATO fell substantially. After the Tuzla island incident, respect of Russia has fallen as well. One becomes more and more convinced that Ukraine must develop and rely upon its own resources. The single most important lesson learned by Ukraine is that Ukrainians can be themselves and survive in the world without the patronage of either their Russian "big brother" or their "rich uncles" in the west.
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