 What Happened? By Scott LEWIS |
Our cover cartoon asks, "What happened?" What happened to the Ukraine that was convinced of its European heritage, and felt it had as much right to be thought of as a European nation as the Czech Republic or Poland? What happened to the positive prognostications that positioned Ukraine as Europe's agricultural annex, a source of well educated, willing and inexpensive workforce, and an industrial powerhouse in search of partners willing to help restore luster and shine to outdated Soviet-era factories?
What happened to the influx of Ukrainians who had left during the years of communist rule, who had tasted the West and wanted to return and guide their homeland to a brighter, democratic future? What happened to the Ukrainians who left after independence, convinced that greener pastures and better lives beckoned through more open frontiers?
What happened to the cash generated by the privatization sale of state-owned assets, or from business activities during the lawless early Wild East days? How much is still here, working to build tomorrow's Ukraine, and how much has been ferreted away through offshore corporations to banks on islands in the Caribbean, South Pacific and elsewhere? How much has been repatriated, made more acceptable through a good cleaning, and represented as foreign direct investment from Cyprus and the British Virgin Islands?
And what happened to the political will to help Ukraine transition from a Soviet republic with a command economy to a free market democracy? What became of the training and advice imparted by hundreds of Western experts supported by millions of dollars in technical assistance and other foreign aid provided by donor nations like the United States over the past decade? What happened to the promise of free and fair elections and improved representative governance? What happened to the rule of law, and to judicial independence?
That it not to say that the nation is not moving forward. The past 12 years have brought some admirable accomplishments. But has the pace been fast enough? Has the runner veered off the path, or merely stumbled occasionally?
As the European Union expands to Ukraine's borders, we ask "What happened?" Did the EU stop short of including this nation? What more must be done to perfect the nation's earnestly professed interest in European integration?
The nation faces many of the same challenges that neighboring states have confronted. What has Ukraine learned from their experience? With just 10.2 million people, the Czech Republic is less than a quarter of Ukraine's size, but its infant mortality rate of 5.46 deaths per thousand is a quarter of Ukraine's 21.14 deaths per thousand. It's HIV/AIDS infection rate is 0.04%. Ukraine's is 24 times that, at 0.96 - nearly 1 in 100 persons. Health issues aside, Ukraine's gross domestic product based on purchasing power parity was estimated at $4,200 in 2001. In the Czech Republic, it's $15,300, fully 3.5 times greater.
Belarus, which by most accounts President Oleksandr Lukashenka has made a pariah state, has about the same population as the Czech Republic. Underdeveloped, ignored and backward as it may be, Lukashenka's citizens enjoy almost twice Ukraine's GDP, an infant mortality rate that's 30 percent lower and an HIV/AIDS prevalence in adults that is one-third of Ukraine's.
At independence, the nation with the rich fertile soil, expansive forests, great natural resources and extensive system of ports and waterways was anticipated to be a shining example to, and perhaps even a competitor with former Soviet satellites like Poland, Hungary and The Czech Republic. Today, Ukraine finds that these countries have developed faster, politically and economically. They left Ukraine behind, and are not looking back.
Analysts generally believe that Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia and the Baltic countries will accede to EU membership long before Ukraine will be ready.
What happened? Given the realities of the past dozen years and the fact that Europe has made its first expansion choices and lined up a solid group of potential entrants during the next round, perhaps it is too late to ask what happened to Ukraine. Perhaps the more relevant and useful question is, "What next? Where should Ukraine go from here?"
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Read also previous issue' articles:
Tourism: Ukraine's Greatest Lost Opportunity
Cars, Cars - and More Cars
The Long Slide Into Instability
Sex, Money and the Modern Dacha
How to Stop Worrying and Love the Property Market
Separating Chornobyl
Fact and Fiction
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