Ukraine is dying. So is Russia. So too, in varying but generally lesser degrees, are other countries in Eastern Europe, primarily those once a part of the Soviet Union.
The dying is literal, painful and a cause of major concern to those charged with the responsibility of governing. That is, a least it should be a major worry for responsible leaders. And one leader, Russia's Vladimir Putin, has identified it as such. As early as July 2000 in his first state of the union address, he put population decline at the top of a list of urgent problems facing his nation.
Demographers anticipate a 33 percent to 40 percent loss in population for Ukraine and Russia by mid-century.
Ukraine's 2001 census, reported in late 2003, indicated a 6.1 percent decline in population (about 3 million, from 51.72 million to 48.46 million). Such declines occurred only twice during the some 70 years of Soviet rule: during the 1933 artificial famine and during World War II.
The causes of these anticipated declines in population fall into three categories: low fertility rates (rates below that necessary to maintain population replacement stability); high national mortality rates; and negative migration rates (Immediately after the demise of the Soviet Union, migration rates were positive in Russia and to a lesser extent in Ukraine, but now trend negative).
What are the potential consequences of this predicted decline in population? Russia stands to lose its influence on the world stage and its status as a powerful nation. Ukraine may suffer even more dire consequences. The Ukraine that was reborn during the late 20th century is composed of an ancient people with a tragic history. In a worst-case scenario, Ukraine's instability could lead to war and its re-conquest or re-submission to the authority of others. Ukraine could let its status as an independent nation slip away, and subsequently lose its place on the map of Europe. In any event, its instability will likely lead to great suffering for a much-suffered people.
One of the problems related to the decline in population, one not included specifically in the categories cited above, is that the cycle of aging in which Ukraine finds itself is structural. But in the long view of history and the nature of demographics, this aging cycle will be cured by time.
What of the problem of low fertility rates? It is said that from somewhere between a 2.05 to 2.14 percent fertility rate is needed to maintain population stability. One estimate of Ukraine's fertility rate is 1.37 (most recent U.S. CIA World Factbook). But much of Western Europe also faces such problems (France rate 1.85, Germany 1.38, same source and years). More affluent Western Europe has the means to attract and perhaps control population by immigration. Presently, Ukraine must end emigration.
Psychological factors affect Ukraine's low rate. In short, the people are pessimistic. They fear their owned economic landscape and circumstances. This must be cured.
Mortality and life expectancy are problems. Diseases including alcoholism, tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS conspire with more normal life diseases (and others not so normal; e.g. work-related deaths, suicides, environmental causes - in short, those related to poverty and reflective of less developed or developing countries rather than of more advanced and developed countries) to magnify and enlarge the mortality totals and decreasing life expectancy. The combination of the pandemic in AIDS/HIV and the growing tuberculosis epidemic feeding on each other alone will lead to staggering death tolls unless addressed and solved.
Compounding all health related problems in Ukraine is the breakdown in medical delivery services. Frankly, the Soviet system provided better resources. The breakup of the Soviet system with all its other initial downward economic effects resulted in an almost wholesale malfunction of Ukraine's healthcare system. While economic progress has been made in many areas, Ukraine's medical care delivery system has disintegrated and atrophied. This is a failure of the government and leadership, and this failure is killing people in large numbers.
What can be done to prevent Ukraine from dying? The answer, simple to state, but difficult to foresee happening is that Ukraine needs leadership.
We hear our politicians promising transparency, economic reforms, judicial reforms, justice, the rule of law, land reform and much more. And we know this is mostly just talk - at least at present.
But where is the leader who will address the suffering, the dying, the poverty, the needs of the people? Those basics can lead to longer, healthier lives and a more stable family situation with opportunity. Where is that person, that party, that leader?
We don't hear from them. Because no one speaks.
There are no leaders.
Glen Willard is editor-in-chief of The Ukrainian Observer.
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