 Black Hole Theory and Ukraine By Glen WILLARD |
Famed astrophysicist Stephen Hawking says that black holes, the mysterious massive vortexes formed from collapsed stars, do not destroy everything they consume, but instead eventually fire out matter and energy "in a mangled form."
Our cover this month depicts our Ukrainian Cossack being sucked into a black hole.
"Black holes occur when a massive star burns up its nuclear fuel and gravity forces it to collapse in on itself, and the enormous weight of the star's outer layers implodes its core. The crushing force of gravity prohibits nearly all light from escaping and nothing inside can be glimpsed from the outside." So said a July 17 article discussing black hole theory and the recent revelation by Stephen Hawking that he had changed his mind about the phenomena.
From the same article: "After almost 30 years of arguing that a black hole swallows up everything that falls into it, astrophysicist Stephen Hawkin has backpedaled."
What's all this got to do with Ukraine?
Last month, Ukraine celebrated it 13th anniversary as an independent state. Great crowds gathered on Khreshchatyk and at Maidan Nezaleznosti for a parade, speeches, concerts, fireworks and the ceremonial firing of cannon.
Thirteen years ago a new nation from an ancient people declared its independence from a former empire. The anticipation and excitement at that time must have been great. People looked forward to new freedoms and new democratically elected leadership.
These would be leaders who would put forth real reforms and provide genuine representation. This would not be the perestroika and glasnost as haltingly explored by Soviet leaders, but real reform. There would be democracy and the rule of law.
Ukraine, this "new" nation with its 52 million people and a land area greater than all other countries wholly in Europe had much promise. Rich in fertile land, industrial resources aplenty, mineral and metallurgical wealth, abundant water and cold winters but an altogether favorable climate, the country was and is blessed. Ukraine's universities and bodies' corporate boasted people of science and knowledge. It is a land and a people with a great cultural tradition and a historical legacy.
It boasted industrious and well-educated people. That was this new nation Ukraine.
Ukraine had star potential among the counties of Eastern Europe, indeed, all of Europe. It had the world's, particularly the West's, attention. Ukraine, with all its promise and potential, had geographical and geopolitical significance. It stood alhwart powerful Russia, its former master, betwixt it and Western Europe.
What has happened to this star, Ukraine, in 13 years?
Some things are positive. After hyperinflation in the early 90s and an economic crisis in 1998, the economy seems fairly stable. Government statisticians and economists point to growth in the economy. Private experts tend to confirm the same. Inflation seems relatively controlled. The currency has been mostly stable since the recovery from 1998.
The streets (and sidewalks) of Kyiv teem with traffic. Many people with average incomes own automobiles. Shops and stores are full of goods. There are Western-style supermarkets and new shopping malls. Office and residential construction abounds, with huge cranes dotting the skyline. Boryspil International Airport has been, for the most part, transformed. The capital's train station and other public places have seen major improvements as well. Good new restaurants open each week. Even the militsiya has seen improvement, seeming, except on occasion, less interested in soliciting bribes.
At least outwardly, there is an air of progress in Kyiv and other major cities including Kharkiv, Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk, though perhaps a little less so than in the capital.
But there is a downside as well.
What of progress in democracy, justice for the people and the basic health and welfare of the individual Ukrainian?
The nation's population has fallen, shrinking from 52 million to 48 million in just a few years. Current demographic forecasts foresee further significant declines. The reasons are many. Fertility rates have slumped to a point below population replacement levels. Mortality is increasing. More people leave the country than arrive, legally or otherwise.
Most of Europe and many other developed nations also have fertility rates well below what is necessary to replace their existing population.
But these nations are compensating for that decline by accepting immigrants. Significantly, life expectancy in Europe is growing and the people are healthier. In Ukraine, life expectancy has declined precipitously. Ukraine should be making progress. Instead, it is mirroring underdeveloped and developing countries, where mortality rate increases are common. Living in Ukraine is hazardous to one's health.
Infant mortality rates have skyrocketed.
Diseases once thought conquered are reappearing. Tuberculosis and sexually transmitted diseases are prevalent, as are cancers and bronchial and coronary diseases. Pollution and other man-made environmental hazards cause some of the problems. Alcoholism and drug use cause others. HIV and AIDS portend a major crisis, killing the young and old alike.
There are social reasons for the low fertility rate as well. Ukrainians live in an unhealthy society, cope with high unemployment, care for old and disabled relatives and face the prospect of living day-to-day at subsistence levels.
People do not want to reproduce if they fear what their children might face or the added cost and responsibilities of offspring.
Does Ukraine have the rule of law? Do Ukrainians benefit from it?
What of justice in society? Of democracy? The "Rule of Law". What of the hopes of yesterday?
The rule of law, defined simply, means that no person is above the law. All stand equally, from the highest official to the humblest citizen. The law does not change with a person's station in life or status in society.
Without the rule of law and the right of a citizen and his property to be protected by an honest tribunal sanctioned by the people, there can be no democracy.
Ukraine still waits for the leaders and the reforms that showed bright promise on the eve of independence 13 years ago. After years of inaction, neglect and undelivered promise, Ukraine, that once-bright star, does not shine so brightly today.
Just as the Ukrainian on our cover seems about to be pulled into a black hole, so does Ukraine.
Hawking's theory, now recast, is that a black hole does not destroy all it consumes. Rather, matter and energy come forth "in a mangled form."
Hopefully Ukraine's future will come forth in not too mangled form post this Independence Day and the next election.
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Read also previous issue' articles:
Tourism: Ukraine's Greatest Lost Opportunity
Cars, Cars - and More Cars
The Long Slide Into Instability
Sex, Money and the Modern Dacha
How to Stop Worrying and Love the Property Market
Separating Chornobyl
Fact and Fiction
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