Who will lead Ukraine in the future? Or, will Ukraine have leadership? That is, effective leadership. What will the March 26, 2006 parliamentary elections results produce for the near term and, even for the long term? Will any one leader or combination of leaders or blocs of parliamentary politicians step forward and make meaningful changes? Meaningful changes that will ensure the promise of the recent Orange Revolution, the revolution that seems in backward motion these days?
Thus, the headline on our Cartoon Cover this month, Ukraine Leadership? Yes, with a question mark. We show caricatures of some who are at least likely to be involved and have influence on the answers to our questions. Of course there are others than those pictured who will certainly influence the answers, but our pictured personages intrigue us most. They are all interested in Ukraine's football; they certainly are players in the game. Pictured clockwise from Yulia Tymoshenko at 6:00 o'clock are: Vitaliy Klitchko, Rinat Akhmetov (perhaps not the best caricature of the young tycoon), Viktor Yushchenko, Viktor Yanukovich and Viktor Pinchuk. Out to the side is Volodymyr Lytvyn.
New changes in law have made the coming contests for influence both more important to the contestants and more critical for the country. Viktor Yushchenko won a heatedly contested, bitterly fought 2004 election over Viktor Yanukovych. The people thought the seemed outcome of their demonstrations on the streets of Kyiv in late 2004 and 2005 had produced
a victory for freedom and democracy. Almost immediately, however, it became clear that deals had been made and there were promises for the victors to keep. The Orange Revolution was compromised from the outset. This produced conflict within the government. How much did promises and compromises made during and after the 'results' of the Orange Revolution contriute to the ineffective government of Yulia Tymoshenko? What exactly was bought with the compromise that led to the grant of immunity from the law for a greatly extended class of politicians? And is it possible that the loser of the last presidential election could become a powerful prime minister holding office during the remainder of the term of the administration of the winner?
Regardless of the "who", the particular persons, the blocs they will ultimately form amid the trade-offs, intrigues as benefiting the palaces of Oriental potentates and medieval kings, who will lead in a manner as to reflect the will of the people as expressed during their trials on Kreshchatyk and throughout the land during the Orange Revolution?
The answer I think is possibly, no one. There may be chaos, at least for an extended interim period. The game these 'leaders' will play is more than rugby rough. And unlike rugby, there is unlikely to be any gentleman's sportsmanship, nor refined behavior. And who will suffer? As always the people. Who will win? At least on some level all the contestants will win. They can't lose; it's to not any one of their advantage. Better to divide somehow the pie. If one of these potential 'leaders' gambles too much, either for themselves or the people they will run risks to their own personal desire for wealth an importance.
What do the people want?
Well, I think it likely they don't know. Exactly, that is. My limited experience and study of history tells me they really don't expect in Ukraine to win as such.
Throughout history, certainly recent history, they've not felt a part of government, or had any meaningful participation therein. That's why the Orange Revolution seemed so glorious. To them, finally participation and hope...and a voice.
They were wrong. I think they now know it. There are no leaders for them.
They are back to protection by the State. Which to them now is a particularly ineffective State.
And they hope for the things that all people want; a decent living, safety and health for themselves and their children, a better life and education for their children, comfort and camaraderie in their homes and workplaces, laughter and joy on occasion, little suffering... those things, a little more.
What do the people need? Not need?
They need leadership.
They need for a few Ukrainian patriots to appear. A few good people. People that understand that the right of all people is to have circumstances that allow for themselves to protect themselves. That they can have rights to property and live under a system of law that allows them to protect and keep the fruits of their own labor.
Such patriots will understand that they need not seek 'reforms' that require compliance with rules that chances potential, and in the future, to join the EU, NATO, a particular Russian or others treaties or alliance. At least not first. They need patriots that don't harp on democracy and the need for elections as of first import. They will understand that "election democracy" in of itself has seldom in the world of the past century been a path to freedom for the peoples of the world.
Freedom comes from the ability to have rights to property and in living under a system of government that allows for the protection of those rights.
The Rule of Law does this and is a first, and basic requirement for freedom and then prosperity for people.
The Rule of Law is not: "have rules of law". The concept is simple. All, repeat all, people are equal before the law and are subject to it.
The king, the prince, the president, all officials of government must answer to the law and be as equal under it as are all citizens and even the lowest peasant.
This is a concept presently alien to current leadership in Ukraine and as best I understand...none of our present contestants for leadership of Ukraine believes this principle. Nor or they remotely willing to adopt it. They agree. They should be above the law that applies to others
Economic Matters
The sine qua non of all Ukrainian politicians... leaders it seems, is to promise 'reform' and from which will follow prosperity for all... and they who are so blessedly free from economic conflicts of interest... say we will have great benefit from foreign direct investment and such. Who, they kidding? These 'leaders'.
Shortly after the Orange Revolution I wrote of what I called the "uncertainty principle" and of the risks investors from afar will accept:
"A few fools may look and participate without assurance. Smart investors will wait for some signs of permanence. But the rules must be the rules. There must be some certainty.
"Looking at the past fourteen years, there has been little certainty. Rather, the only certainties seem to be that the businessman, the investor has had to live with the certainty of corruption in government at all levels, judicial malfeasance, arbitrary, burdensome, and ever changing regulations. In short, all the circumstances existed that would cause any prudent investor, businessman, and others who otherwise might be inclined favorably towards Ukraine's large potential market, its well educated and technically talented population and other favorable attributes, to walk away. And they in large measure did."
The parliamentary elections of March 26 will not produce certainty. More likely a period of chaos, prior to the time our resultant contestant 'leaders' figure out how to carve up (maybe re-carve up) the Ukrainians people pie.
And the people will suffer. There are no patriots in the land. Not found among the present ‘leaders’ anyway.
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