 A tail wags a dog By Olesya Oleshko |
"We have 'fat cats' parties and we have dog-parties, - said political expert Vadim Karasiov two days before the parliamentary vote - but the latter are not fighting dogs, they are rather small dogs - like dachshunds, and they are very important for final configurations". According to Mr. Karasiov, the dachshund-parties were to be used as additional color intensifier for the future parliamentary coalitions. "If for example a bloc of Pora - Reforms & Order party gets into the parliament the orange coalition will be even more orange, and the same - if Natalia Vitrenko's bloc get in, it will make the blue coalition more blue."
Although the election results announced by CEC showed that the future parliament would be the best place for the "fat cats" - vote leader Party of Regions (32%), second top Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko (22.3%) and pro-presidential bloc Nasha Ukraina (14%), their balance would strongly depend on the behavior of their 'smaller brothers' - the Socialist Party of Ukraine (SPU) with 6% and the Communist Party of Ukraine (CPU) at 3.6%. (Note: Percentages with approximately 99% of votes tallied.)
To break through
Those, who were kept behind the door without any chance to climb over the 3% threshold, now have the chance to start analyzing their mistakes, to begin making conclusions and to get ready for the next elections. Some political annalists were articulating the idea that the next election may happen much sooner than five years. Even before the March 26 vote, experts were talking about three possible ways to organize early elections.
First - to protest the results of the parliamentary elections in court, based on election violations, as happened after the second round of the presidential election in 2004. On the day after the vote this idea faded as most all international observers admitted that there had been an unprecedented level of fairness and democracy in the whole election process. "These elections can only be described as free and fair, and so it is the Ukrainian people who are the real winners," said OSCE PA President Alcee Hastings. The co-rapporteur for PACE's monitoring of Ukraine, Renate Wohlwend, also underlined that "despite serious technical failings, in a clear break with the past, all Ukrainians have demonstrated their commitment to the democratic process". Some legal analysts noticed some legal breaches, which could have been used as a reason for a re-vote. One of them is described herewith. That is, some voters could not find themselves on the voting list. Previously applying the logic used during the last presidential elections, if a voter could not find himself in the voting list he could go to court and the court had to issue a statement obliging the polling station commission to insert that voter's name to the list. During the 2006 elections this procedure was forbidden. But some courts were still issuing the statements to insert missing voters to the list, which had to be executed by the polling station commission. Luckily, this practice was not widely used. Otherwise, the illegal decisions of the courts could have been used as a reason for protesting the results of the elections.
The second option refers to a nearer future. The parliament may be dismissed by the President if the deputies fail to form a majority within 30 days after their first session.
The third way of dissolving the parliament can work out should its members fail to form the government within 60 days after their first session.
Now the last two options seem to be unreal as well. Politicians themselves and political experts explain this is for several reasons. First of all, the leading political forces can agree upon everything just to preserve their seats. The last reason, but not the least, is that they have spent huge sums of money for the present campaign and now it will be easier to negotiate and form a coalition and a government than to waste fortunes again. "Too much money has been already spend - Yulia Tyshchenko, an expert of Ukrainian Independent Center for Political Research told The Ukrainian Observer - So they [the deputies] will have to work together and form the coalition. It will be formed, but as of the moment none of the political forces have managed to give us a good description of this coalition".
Color of the Coalition
As soon as the first exit polls results were issued and parties and blocs realized the future perspectives, they started making public the drafts of the future parliamentary coalition. Ironically, the Party of Regions, which got most of the votes, lost the battle for the coalition and it is likely to stay in opposition, perhaps forever. Before the official CEC results were announced, some optimistic representatives of the party supposed they would form the parliamentary majority themselves with no other support from outside. Again, this idea, which was made in electoral fever died as well as the possibility of forming a coalition with like-minded parties.
The People's bloc of Volodymyr Lytvyn (the Rada Speaker) was seen among potential allies of the Party of Regions (PR), but it lacked less than 0.5% to overcome the 3% barrier. The Communists might be only group of support in the new convocation, but the PR doesn't have much in common with the bearers of the red banner and Lenin's ideas. "Us and the Communists - we both have different ideologies - Taras Chornovil, one of the leaders of the Party of Regions told The Ukrainian Observer - but some people in the party think that we can cooperate since the communist faction in the Parliament will be rather small, not very influential. But at some point we can use them". On the day after the elections PR, just in case, announced that the party is waiting with open arms for everybody to talk about cooperation in the future parliament. Taras Chornovil considers Socialist party of Oleksandr Moroz a candidate number one for joining the blue family, but still thinks that Moroz will be accepted only if he gets rid of some of his party fellows like Interior Minister Yuriy Lustenko and Agriculture Minister Alexandr Baranivsky.
And while the "blue-and-white" (potentially mixed with red) forces are sorting out ways for such cooperation, the orange camp is celebrating with Champaign. Yet on March 26, Yulia Tymoshenko, whose bloc came in second with roughly 22% votes of the votes announced her readiness to form the coalition with Nasha Ukraina (NU) headed by the current Prime Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov and the Socialist party of Ukraine with their leader Oleksandr Moroz. "I can assure you, that our political force, NU and Socialist party have completely agreed upon a draft of the coalition agreement" - said Tymoshenko after the election. However, neither representatives of NU nor the Socialists hurried up to sign it. One of NU's leaders, Roman Zvarych, assumed that the coalition memorandum might not likely be signed immediately, as it takes some time to come to understanding on the key issues.
What’s at stake?
Of course, the position of the Prime Minister and, not less, the seat of the Rada Speaker. Also, all the key players announced about their interest in getting finance, security, and justice portfolios. At the same time, Mr. Zvarych assumes that now it's too early to talk about the Prime Minister nominee - "we'll be able to make up our mind only after the first session of the new Rada has taken place". No doubt that Mr. Zvarych himself does understand that this way will never happen - the new MPs will enter the parliament being aware of the exact scheme of portfolio distribution. According to prior calculations, the three orange political forces can form a majority of 240-250 deputies out of 450 in total.
Still, while talking about the negotiations, people usually pay attention to two main stakeholders - NU and BYuT. But there is another actor that can be crucial for each coalition, - the mentioned above dachshund is needed everywhere. This is the Socialist party and their nearly 6% in the parliament. Everyone understands that the orange coalition will lose a lot without this support, thus Moroz is viewed as a holder of a so called "golden share", with which he can open any door for himself or his people. "The role of the Socialists party and the personal role of Oleksandr Moroz in the negotiations was very constructive - said Zvarych, and of course the Socialists will play a significant role in the future coalition". Maybe the role will be even more significant and the decisions taken by a big coalition dog will be determined by a slight wag of its tail.
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More in the section:
Ukraine's Free Elections & Kamikaze President
Read also previous issue' articles:
Are Ukraine's Political Habits Unique?
Is Ukraine's Economic Growth Speculation-led?
Ukraine is Drifting to the West - Slowly but Surely
The Unfinished Orange Revolution?
Vacuums, Reforms and the Need to Regain the Initiative
Pirates of the 21st century
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