Yulia Tymoshenko's passion for stylish clothes and accessories by European and Ukrainian designers is well-known. However, her daily dress may be complicated by a recent statement in which she said: "On my t-shirt, on my sweater, on all my clothes I will write down that I am not going to run in the presidential election in 2009." The seriousness of this statement, made on April 17 in the heat of the coalition talks, remains to be seen.
Political experts say that the vow she made - her unequivocal promise not to run for president - is a sacrifice she is willing to make in the hope of rebuilding the Orange Revolution grouping. However, there is also an almost universally held opinion that, should she fail in her real short-term goal, that of again becoming prime minister, then her denial of presidential ambitions would expire immediately. She is also thought to have no interest in any action that would strengthen the presidency at the expense of premiership.
Preliminary designing
With the Verkhovna Rada unlikely to open its first session sooner than late May, the political analysts and reporters busy themselves analyzing all possible versions of a parliamentary coalition.
The results of a poll of experts conducted by the Democratic Initiatives Foundation on April 6-10 clearly shows that most of the respondents believe that the future coalition will be Orange - i.e. formed by the Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko (BYuT), Our Ukraine and the Socialists. At the same time the poll revealed that experts expect such a coalition to have a short life expectancy.
Most political forecasts indicate that the Orange reunion group - if formed - would split within the first year of the parliament, and after that the pro-presidential Our Ukraine would seek coalition with the Party of Regions, nominal winner of the parliamentary elections. Should this happen, OU would almost certainly have to accept some very unpalatable conditions laid down by Regions, with BYuT and the Socialists becoming a struggling opposition.
This assumed sequence suggests that by the time the Orange reunion has come asunder and an OU/Regions coalition could emerge, the focus would have shifted to the 2009 presidential elections with few political operators left with any commitments to re-election of the incumbent. However this scenario plays out, virtually all observers believe that Tymoshenko is almost certain to put her name in competition for the presidency.
Orange Stitches
At least for now, Tymoshenko and her bloc leaders assure voters, politicians and President Yushchenko of the necessity of an Orange revival and Tymoshenko's return as head of government.
However, Yushchenko's brothers-in-arms are in no way enthralled with a reinstalled PM Tymoshenko with increased powers, although they admit such an outcome is possible. Oleh Rybachuk, the chief of presidential administration, recently stated that Tymoshenko may attain her ambitions to return as prime minister only if she takes clear political responsibilities. "If Yulia Tymoshenko wants to be in charge of the government, she should prove that she is ready to take political responsibilities. She needs to gain the trust, which cannot be added by a simple presidential decree," Rybachuk told UNIAN news agency. However, Rybachuk also admitted that, even having all sorts of agreements and protocols signed, some of Our Ukraine members might vote against her candidacy for confirmation as prime minister.
Ukrainian politicians and businessmen are not the only ones with concerns about Tymoshenko's governance methods. Some in the international business community see Tymoshenko as a potential danger to privatized property, and point to her reprivatization efforts as evidence of her tendency toward nationalization of enterprises.
Naturally, Tymoshenko refutes these accusations, pointing out that the reprivatization of illegally privatized enterprises was mentioned in President Yushchenko's election platform, which she had a duty to carry out. She further says that the anti-corruption campaign started under her supervision was responding to the demands of foreign investors for fewer bureaucratic procedures and economic transparency.
Blue & White Fashion
"Taking into account the European experience, one should have given a right to the winning party - i.e. Party of Regions, to form the coalition and if it had failed, to start looking at other configurations," former President Leonid Kuchma told Profile.
So far, Regions has the most convenient position - waiting and observing the attempts of their political rivals to cement a majority. At the same time they would feel comfortable with working in the opposition, taking into account discord in the Orange camp, and the fact that the Regions bloc would be strong enough to block virtually any parliamentary decision it opposed. "If we do not enter the coalition," said Raisa Bohatyriova, a Regions leader, "we'll act as a classical opposition, with all the rights, duties and responsibilities."
In private talks, Regions representatives admit that the second way - short term existence of an Orange team with Tymoshenko as prime minister - might even work to Regions advantage. Regions leaders see it as an opportunity to later say, "You've tried twice with no result; now let us do something."
Many are now voicing references to a German type Grand Coalition (formed by rival parties, who got almost the same number of votes).
"If the president wants to have two powers in Ukraine, he'll be creating a coalition with Orange fragments," said Bohatyriova. "But if he is a responsible politician, he will not be doing this, but he will take into account the choice of the Ukrainian nation and the coalition will be grand".
So far the newly elected deputies are taking their time. It now appears entirely possible that the process will drag on through the summer with June being devoted to creation of parliamentary majority and July to creation of the Cabinet of Ministers.
Ukrainian political fashion for the summer season is very hard to predict with all variants of Orange, Region's blue & white and even Socialist pink showing up as possible combinations.
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