When we went to press with the July edition of the Observer, all signs pointed to a high probability of Yulia Tymoshenko returning as prime minister, heading an Orange coalition government. In the month since that premature and erroneous conclusion, the clumsy maneuvering of the apparent winners has turned the Orange coalition into an orange frappe'. With the loss of Oleksandr Moroz and the Socialists, an Orange scenario turned Blue and Ukraine's political world turned upside down. By simply ceding to Moroz his most desired prize, the speaker's chair of the Verkhovna Rada, the Party of Regions accomplished several goals -- control of a majority coalition in the parliament, chairmanships of most parliamentary committees and probably the eventual seating of Yanukovych as prime minister. In the face of the seemingly inevitable, President Viktor Yushchenko has engaged in endless talks and meetings with the aim of avoiding the appointment of Yanukovych as prime minister and overturning the constitutional revision that he agreed to earlier but finds so odious in its current realities. A series of round table discussions, beginning on Thursday, July 27, with a six-hour public talkathon, has so far accomplished little other than making the weakness of the president's position even more manifest. The talks were recessed early Saturday, July 29 and as the Observer went to press no decision had been made about further meetings. Getting agreement on what the president has called a National Unity Pact appears a dim possibility. The president may eventually get a piece of paper with signatures on it, but it is hard to imagine that the longevity of any supposed agreement would change the hard realities that the president seeks to avoid. The Regions forces have the votes required since making their coalition deal with Oleksandr Moroz and the Socialists. There have been unsuccessful attempts to tempt Moroz back into some approximation of the original Orange coalition, but logic suggests that, having once again become speaker of the parliament, Moroz is extremely unlikely to be tempted by any other prize possible. If one assumes that Moroz is unshakeable, it is hard to see any set of circumstances that gives the president even the slightest bit of wiggle room. The fact that some of the more portable members of the parliament have already switched membership to Regions tends to reinforce this conclusion. The president's only choices appear to be reluctantly agreeing to see Viktor Yanukovych again become prime minister, or dissolving the parliament and hoping for a better result in new parliamentary elections. Strange to say, but the latter option is probably least attractive for Yushchenko since there is a very broad consensus among political observers that pre-term parliamentary elections would be likely to see both Regions and the Tymoshenko bloc strengthen their vote turnout at the expense of Our Ukraine. There has been a certain amount of play acting in Ukraine's great political theater district, Independence Square. As soon as it became clear that the Orange coalition was a thin and imploding fade, tents of all colors began to appear. As of the end of July, the main section of the square, usually referred to simply as Maidan, was a sea of competing colored tents and flags to the point that it almost impossible to walk. The main difference to be noticed is that in place of the rude tents and other accommodations totally blocking Khreshchatyk Street during Orange Revolution days, now all of the tents are obviously factory-made to order by the various political camps. Any sense of spontaneity appears irretrievably lost. First, there was PORA, the youth-oriented group that played such a major role in 2004. But now, rather than having some clear central direction, PORA is split into Pink Pora and Yellow Pora and maybe even more groups and colors before its over. Tymoshenko has tents and booths too but she insists they are strictly for informational purposes as she continues to lean on Yushchenko to dissolve the parliament. The tents, booths and banners are colorful fodder for the television cameras, although they have taken on the appearance of a children's crusade with most of their inhabitants in their teens and early 20's. Behind all the hoopla, the problem remains the lack of a decision by the president. Just how long this current impasse might continue is uncertain, but coming as it does in the heat of normal summer holiday time gives the president some limited running room - not much, but some. Most of those in the Orange Revolution tent city of 2004 were highly motivated and dedicated supporters of an idea, and the idea was that the time had come for a major sea change in Ukraine's political and governmental life. Many political observers thought in 2004 and some believe even more strongly now that the so-called Orange Revolution was not so much in favor of Viktor Yushchenko, but was much more an anti-Kuchma revolution. A large part of the Ukrainian electorate was simply tired of the antics and questionable practices of Ukraine's main political actors and in particular, President Leonid Kuchma. Who could imagine that barely 18 months after what appeared to the world as one of the great people's revolutions, the president and his administration could have dithered and dallied to the point that Yushchenko's political poll ratings are on a level with those of Kuchma in the latter days of his regime. At least two recent surveys by highly reputable polling firms suggest that if a presidential election were held today, Viktor Yushchenko might poll no more than 10 percent of the vote. In 2004, the people joined together to make a decision that they thought would bring a better future for Ukraine. Today, doubts about that decision are becoming more apparent and widespread. Interviews with many of those who spent a cold winter in Maidan for a cause they believed in then suggest they would be unwilling to even consider the same sacrifices today. Jim Davis is editor-in-chief of the Ukrainian Observer magazine. The comments appearing above are exclusively his own and reflect neither the views of the magazine nor The Willard Group. People wishing to comment should send mail to jim@twg.com.ua. Letters submitted for possible publication are subject to normal editing constraints so far as language and length and should not exceed 250 words.
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