Yushchenko Meets Sarkozy and Clinton While Coalition Talks Proceed in Kyiv

Presidents Sarkozy, Yushchenko and Clinton meet in Paris News and commentary from the Ukrainian Observer Online PARIS, Oct. 5 -- French President Nicolas Sarkozy welcomed President Victor Yushchenko to the Élysée Palace on Friday for face-to-face talks expected to focus on how to boost Ukraine’s political, economic and humanitarian ties with France. The Sarkozy-Yushchenko duo became a trio, as former United States President Bill Clinton, who had held talks with Sarkozy before the meeting, also greeted the visiting Ukrainian leader. Yushchenko said he was glad to see Ukraine’s "two big friends who have done much to promote democracy in the world." Yushchenko and Clinton enjoy a lighter moment at the ceremonies Meanwhile, on the political home front in Kyiv discussions were underway to establish a coalition that would be more Western oriented. Prior to Friday’s talks, Yuriy Lutsenko, co-leader of Our Ukraine-People's Self-Defense bloc, said reports about their possible alliance with the Party of Regions led by Premier Viktor Yanukovych were a "provocation." Earlier in the week, Yulia Tymoshenko, a likely candidate to return as prime minister, reiterated her earlier statement that she would not join a coalition with the Party of Regions under any circumstances. Yanukovych's party is expected to receive the largest number of seats, 175, in the 450-seat Supreme Rada. But the Tymoshenko and Our Ukraine blocs, with 156 and 72 seats respectively, are likely to form a governing majority removing the current prime minister. At least 226 seats are required to establish a parliamentary majority. Yanukovych's allies, the Communists, are set to claim 27 seats in the new parliament, and former speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn's bloc is expected to have 20 mandates. Lytvyn is said to have talks planned with both the Orange camp and with Regions. Asked whether the pro-presidential bloc would sacrifice the post of parliamentary speaker to Lytvyn to secure his bloc's support, Lutsenko said this would be clear after the talks. The position of speaker and security portfolios in the Cabinet will go to Our Ukraine-People's Self Defense under a pre-election power-sharing deal with Tymoshenko, who is seeking to regain the premiership. However, there is increasing evidence that the combined Orange bloc might be willing to offer the speakership to Lytvyn, assuming his 20 votes would be assured to strengthen the Orange majority. ###

Oct 5, 2007

Renewal of Russia-Ukraine Gas Crisis Looms

News and commentary from the Ukrainian Observer Online MOSCOW, Oct. 2 – Reports from official sources in Russia said Tuesday that the Russian gas giant, Gazprom, could reduce natural gas supplies to Ukraine in October if the country fails to settle its $1.3 billion debt. The information was contained in a Gazprom news release in Moscow. "Taking into account... a systematic failure by Ukraine to keep to the current contracts, Gazprom will have to start cutting natural gas deliveries to Ukrainian consumers if the debt is not settled in October," the statement said. Gazprom said it has notified its European partners of the problem. "The Russian side fully fulfills its part of the contract, but the Ukrainian side's debt for gas supplies is over $1.3 billion," the energy giant said, adding that Gazprom has reminded Ukraine many times that the debt should be settled as soon as possible, but to no avail. "Gazprom hopes for constructive resolution of our Ukrainian partners' debt problem and will do everything possible to completely fulfill its commitments on export contracts," Gazprom said. On January 1, 2007, the gas price for Ukraine was raised to $130 per 1,000 cubic meters from $95 per 1,000 cubic meters in 2006, and could grow in 2008 to $143 or more per 1,000 cubic meters. Reports appearig in Western newspapers soon after the Gazprom announcement said that some analysts believe the announcement was a message in support of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych and his pro-Russia Regions bloc. However, Gazprom denied the claims. ###

Oct 2, 2007

Late Vote Count Appears to Favor Upset Victory for Opposition

Tymoshenko celebrating claimed election victory News and commentary from the Ukrainian Observer Online KYIV, Oct. 2 – With the vote count near completion, no party, bloc or proposed coalition seems to have a lock on establishing a parliamentary majority and naming the next prime minister. However, the chances of the opposition to unseat the existing Regions majority seem to have improved considerably. The latest Central Election Commission count, which includes almost 98 percent of the protocols submitted by polling districts all over the country, shows the Party of the Regions still in first place with 34.14 percent of the vote, which theoretically should give Regions 174 seats in the new parliament. The Communist Party of Ukraine has 5.36 percent of the vote, which should give the party 27 seats. Thus, the combined parliamentary mandates of an expected Regions and Communist coalition would total 201, 25 short of the number needed to take control of the parliament. The Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc’s vote total stands at 30.86 percent, which should result in 157 mandates. Combining this with the Our Ukraine People's Self-Defense Bloc total of 14.29 percent, which should produce approximately 73 seats, you arrive at a total of approximately 230 votes, four more than the number needed for control of the parliament. The only other party or bloc that appears capable of passing the three percent of total vote threshold is the Lytvyn Bloc, led by former parliament speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn. The raw figures at this point seem to suggest that the Tymoshenko-Our Ukraine combination may be on the verge of taking control of the parliament from Regions. However, only speculation is possible until the CEC arrives at and certifies a final vote count. Whatever the CEC’s decision, court challenges are expected to be immediate and vociferous, with considerable time required before the appeals are adjudicated. In the meantime, it is considered highly likely that Ukraine will again see huge numbers of political supporters camped in Kyiv’s main squares and around the Constitutional and other courts.                                                             ###

Oct 2, 2007

Vote Count Nearly Complete With No Clear Winner in Sight
Regions – Tymoshenko in Virtual Dead Heat with Most Votes Counted
UPDATE: Tymoshenko Still in First Place with Over Half the Vote Counted
Election Results Suggest Orange Forces May Regain Parliament Control
Ukraine Could Be Big Winner in the World Move to Biofuels
Ukraine’s Campaign – Finishing One Fight and Preparing for Another

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